Конца света не будет. Почему экологический алармизм причиняет нам вред - Майкл Шелленбергер

484

Walter Sullivan, “Extinction of Blue Whale Feared,” New York Times, May 18, 1959, https://www.nytimes.com.

485

“Whaler Tells of Industry Shift from Oil to Production of Food,” New York Times, May 12, 1968, https://www.nytimes.com.

486

Viktoria Schneider and David Pearce, “What Saved the Whales? An Economic Analysis of 20th Century Whaling,” Biodiversity and Conservation 13 (2004): 453–562, https://doi.org/10.1023/B: BIOC.0000009489.08502.1a.

487

Viktoria Schneider and David Pearce, “What Saved the Whales? An Economic Analysis of 20th Century Whaling,” Biodiversity and Conservation 13 (2004): 453–562, https://doi.org/10.1023/B: BIOC.0000009489.08502.1a.

488

Viktoria Schneider and David Pearce, “What Saved the Whales? An Economic Analysis of 20th Century Whaling,” Biodiversity and Conservation 13 (2004): 453–562, https://doi.org/10.1023/B: BIOC.0000009489.08502.1a.

489

Tønnessen and Johnsen, The History of Modern Whaling, 136.

490

Viktoria Schneider and David Pearce, “What Saved the Whales? An Economic Analysis of 20th Century Whaling.”

491

Davis et al., In Pursuit of Leviathan, 512.

492

Linus Blomqvist, Ted Nordhaus, and Michael Shellenberger, Nature Unbound: Decoupling for Conservation, The Breakthrough Institute, 2015, accessed December 5, 2019, 29, https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/uploads.thebreakthrough.org/legacy/images/pdfs/Nature_Unbound.pdf.

493

Schneider and Pearce, “What Saved the Whales? An Economic Analysis of 20th Century Whaling.” The economists stress that there can still be a role for environmental regulation. “While international agreements may have limited effectiveness, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that domestic policies are potent ways of ‘tunnelling through’ the Environmental Kuznets Curve.”

494

J. C. Fisher and R. H. Pry, “A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 3 (1971–72): 75–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7.

495

Cesare Marchetti, “A Personal Memoir: From Terawatts to Witches,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 37, no. 4 (1990): 409–414, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(90)90049-2.

496

Cesare Marchetti, “A Personal Memoir: From Terawatts to Witches,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 37, no. 4 (1990): 409–414, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(90)90049-2.

497

C. Marchetti and N. Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, December 1979, http://pure.МИПСА. ac.at/id/eprint/1024/1/RR-79-013.pdf.

498

Marchetti, “A Personal Memoir: From Terawatts to Witches.”

499

Cesare Marchetti, “Primary Energy Substitution Models: On the Interaction Between Energy and Society,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 10, no. 4 (1977): 345–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(77)90031-2.

500

Marchetti and Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model.

501

Michael Williams, Deforesting the Earth: From Prehistory to Global Crisis, An Abridgment (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2006), 162.

502

Marchetti, “Primary Energy Substitution Models.”

503

Richard Rhodes, Energy: A Human History (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018).

504

Cesare Marchetti, “Primary Energy Substitution Models.”

505

In liquid form, natural gas has 54 MJ/kg, but liquefaction of natural gas requires significant amounts of energy. Smil, Power Density, 13.

506

Ibid., 13, 122. The original calculations of the carbon-to-hydrogen ratio for fossil fuels are from Nebojša Nakiceovic, “Freeing Energy from Carbon,” Daedalus 125, no. 3 (Summer 1996), 95–112, http://pure.МИПСА. ac.at/id/eprint/4850/1/RR-97-04.pdf. Natural gas is typically made up of methane, ethane, and propane. Methane comprises 73–95 percent of the natural gas that comes out of the earth and produces 35 MJ/kg compared to coal’s 25 MJ/kg.

507

Nebojša Nakiceovic, “Freeing Energy from Carbon,” 99.

508

Tyler Hodge, “EIA Forecasts Slower Growth in Natural Gas – Fired Generation While Renewable Energy Rises,” Today in Energy, U.S. Energy Information Administration, January 16, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42497.

509

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019, 68th Edition, BP, June 2019, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf. “Access to Clean Cooking,” SDG7: Data and Projections, International Energy Agency, November 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-clean-cooking. Energy Access Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency, October 2017, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/274. In 2018, coal provided 27 percent of primary energy, not the 4 percent Marchetti had predicted. Natural gas provided 24 percent, not the 65 percent he had projected. Nuclear power provided 4 percent, not the 10 percent he had forecast.

510

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019, 68th Edition, BP, June 2019, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf. “Access to Clean Cooking,” SDG7: Data and Projections, International Energy Agency, November 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-clean-cooking. Energy Access Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency, October 2017, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/274. In 2018, coal provided 27 percent of primary energy, not the 4 percent Marchetti had predicted. Natural gas provided 24 percent, not the 65 percent he had projected. Nuclear power provided 4 percent, not the 10 percent he had forecast.

511

Gasland, written and directed by Josh Fox, HBO, 2010.

512

Ian Urbina, “Regulation Lax as Gas Wells’ Tainted Water Hits Rivers,” New York Times, February 26, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com.

513

State of Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Natural Resources, Gasland (Denver: Department of Natural Resources, June 2013), accessed January 15, 2020, https://www.energyindepth.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GASLAND-DOC.pdf.

514

State of Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Natural Resources, Gasland (Denver: Department of Natural Resources, June 2013), accessed January 15, 2020, https://www.energyindepth.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GASLAND-DOC.pdf.

515

kwashnak, “The Famous Burning Well of Colfax – Louisiana Historical Markers,” Waymarking, accessed November 8, 2019, https://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM8XQ8_The_Famous_Burning_Well_of_Colfax.

516

Phelim McAleer, Ann McElhinney, and Magdalena Segieda, dirs., FrackNation (Ann and Phelim Media, 2013), quoted