Власть роботов. Как подготовиться к неизбежному - Мартин Форд

202

Ford, Interview with Oren Etzioni, in Architects of Intelligence, p. 494.

203

Ford, Architects of Intelligence, p. 528.

204

Эта оценка пессимистична по сравнению с результатами других опросов. Поскольку многие из них проводились на конференциях по ИИ, охват исследователей с разным профессиональным уровнем был намного более широким. Большинство прогнозов появления универсального ИИ с вероятностью 50 % приходится на 2040–2050 годы. Список опросов см. в сноске 63 в главе 5.

205

«AI timeline surveys,» AI Impacts, accessed June 27, 2020, aiimpacts.org/ai-timeline-surveys/.

206

Наш путешественник во времени вторит бывшему министру финансов и директору Национального экономического совета Лоуренсу Саммерсу, который в ноябре 2016 года предсказал, что к 2050 году от четверти до трети мужчин трудоспособного возраста будут вытеснены из трудовых ресурсов. (См. сноску 1 в главе 6.)

207

David Axelrod, «Larry Summers,» The Axe Files (podcast), episode 98, November 21, 2016, omny.fm/shows/the-axe-files-with-david-axelrod/ep-98-larry-summers.

208

Sam Fleming and Brooke Fox, «US states that voted for Trump most vulnerable to job automation,» Financial Times, January 23, 2019, www.ft.com/content/cbf2a01e-1f41-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65.

209

Carol Graham, «Understanding the role of despair in America’s opioid crisis,» Brookings Institution, October 15, 2019, www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-can-policy-address-the-opioid-crisis-and-despair-in-america/.

210

См., например: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?», Oxford Martin School Programme on Technology and Employment, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38.

211

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Unemployment rate (UNRATE),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 18, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; Greg Rosalsky, «Are we even close to full employment?» NPR Planet Money, July 2, 2019, www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/07/02/737790095/are-we-even-close-to-full-employment.

212

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, «Activity rate: Aged 25–54: Males for the United States (LRAC25MAUSM156S),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 17, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25MAUSM156S.

213

«Trends in Social Security Disability Insurance,» Social Security Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Briefing Paper No. 2019-01, August 2019, www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/briefing-papers/bp2019-01.html.

214

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Labor force participation rate (CIVPART),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 17, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART.

215

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real output per hour of all persons (OPHPBS),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHPBS; U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real compensation per hour (PRS84006151),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS84006151.

216

World Bank, «GINI index for the United States (SIPOVGINIUSA),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 20, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA.

217

Martha Ross and Nicole Bateman, «Low-wage work is more pervasive than you think, and there aren’t enough ‘good jobs’ to go around,» Brookings Institution, November 21, 2019, www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/11/21/low-wage-work-is-more-pervasive-than-you-think-and-there-arent-enough-good-jobs-to-go-around/.

218

«The U. S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI),» accessed July 15, 2020, www.jobqualityindex.com/.

219

Gwynn Guilford, «The great American labor paradox: Plentiful jobs, most of them bad,» Quartz, November 21, 2019, qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic-indicator-weve-been-missing/.

220

Elizabeth Redden, «41 % of recent grads work in jobs not requiring a degree,» Inside Higher Ed, February 18, 2020, www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/02/18/41-recent-grads-work-jobs-not-requiring-degree.

221

«The Phillips curve may be broken for good,» The Economist, November 1, 2017, www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/11/01/the-phillips-curve-may-be-broken-for-good.

222

Jeff Jeffrey, «U. S. companies are rolling in cash, and they’re growing increasingly fearful to spend it,» The Business Journals, December 12, 2018, www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2018/12/12/u-s-companies-are-hoarding-cash-and-theyre-growing.html.

223

Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, Basic Books, 2015, pp. 206–21.

224

Martin Ford, Interview with James Manyika, in Architects of Intelligence: The Truth about AI from the People Building It, Packt Publishing, 2018, pp. 285–286.

225

Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu, «Job polarization and jobless recoveries,» National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 18334, issued in August 2012, revised in November 2018, www.nber.org/papers/w18334.

226

Jacob Bunge and Jesse Newman, «Tyson turns to robot butchers, spurred by coronavirus outbreaks,» Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2020, www.wsj.com/articles/meatpackers-covid-safety-automation-robots-coronavirus-11594303535.

227

Miso Robotics, «White Castle selects Miso Robotics for a new era of artificial intelligence in the fast-food industry,» Press Release Newswire, July 14, 2020, www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/white-castle-selects-miso-robotics-for-a-new-era-of-artificial-intelligence-in-the-fast-food-industry-301092746.html.

228

James Manyika, Susan Lund, Michael Chui, et al., «Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages,» McKinsey Global Institute, November 28, 2017, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.

229

Ferris Jabr, «Cache cab: Taxi drivers’ brains grow to navigate London’s streets,» Scientific American, December 8, 2011, www.scientificamerican.com/article/london-taxi-memory/.

230

Kate Conger, «Facebook starts planning for permanent remote workers,» New York Times, May 21, 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/technology/facebook-remote-work-coronavirus.html.

231

Alexandre Tanzi, «Gloom grips U. S. small businesses, with 52 % predicting failure,» Bloomberg, May 6, 2020, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/majority-of-u-s-small-businesses-expect-to-close-survey-says.

232

Alfred Liu, «Robots to cut 200,000 U. S. bank jobs in next decade, study says,» Bloomberg, October 1, 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/robots-to-cut-200-000-u-s-bank-jobs-in-next-decade-study-says.

233

Jack Kelly, «Artificial intelligence is superseding well-paying Wall Street jobs,» Forbes, December 10, 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/12/10/artificial-intelligence-is-superseding-well-paying-wall-street-jobs/.

234

«Top healthcare chatbots startups,» Tracxn,